Oil prices have risen steeply since the start of the US-Iranian conflict; how can Athla account for market change in valuations?
Global market changes affect all of us in a myriad of ways. Today we are looking specifically at how we can account for the effect in valuations to ensure that we give our clients a robust valuation that has considered all the relevant factors.
Oil prices have continued to rise since the start of the conflict and Qatar have warned that it will take ‘weeks to months’ to return to a normal cycle of deliveries. It’s clear to us that this is going to have a major impact on British businesses, both directly and indirectly. News coverage has begun to acknowledge this – see the latest FT article on How the Iran War will change global business.
With rising geopolitical tensions and increasing energy prices, we are reassessing the assumptions that underpin a valuation. Ensuring that these assumptions remain robust is increasingly important for boards, investors, stakeholders and HMRC-compliant share scheme valuations.
And how are we doing this you ask?
All of this means that you can trust Athla to have considered geopolitical impact on valuations.
But in practice what does that actually mean? Well, sometimes the change is systemic, like reshoring of commercial capabilities and materials, and has an effect on most businesses’ operations. We’re comfortable and used to adjusting for systemic changes.
So what happens when we value a business that is highly affected by a specific event? We analyse the event as a company-specific factor as well as acknowledging general geopolitical impact.
For example, let’s cast our minds back to the blocking of the Suez Canal and the reaction within the shipping industry (there is a direct correlation with the issues in the Strait of Hormuz today). A study published in 2025 stated that Maersk Line lost “nearly $89m” and have only just begun to use the Suez Canal again since January 2026. If we were valuing a similar shipping company, we might use the change in value of Maersk Line over this period as a proxy for the impact of a similar blockage to our theoretical company’s shipping.
Otherwise, we use a combination of our comprehensive data request form, desk research, years of experience from our CEO and careful conversations with the company to determine whether an adjustment is needed.
It’s important to note that we cannot have perfect knowledge of every industry, but we are very experienced at asking the right questions to identify where a factor has become vitally significant to the valuation.
If you have a client who is feeling the impact of current geopolitics and needs a sensitive hand to their company’s valuation, please do get in touch.
