Predicting the Next Stock Market Crash: Strategies That Work<\/em><\/a>
\nI do not pretend to be an economist, so when I consider these themes,\u00a0I look for a direction of travel rather than the fine detail in the first instance. Then I speak to my colleagues who know their economics and academic theory to\u00a0see if there is evidence\u00a0to support the argument or prove the point. In this part of our considerations around establishing value, quite simply,\u00a0no evidence means no argument,\u00a0however irritating that might be.<\/p>\n(By the way there are still some niche areas within the value of intangible assets where there is a complete lack of data and\/or academic research or precedents \u2013 so sometimes there we still resort to using our professional judgement, potentially applying a surrogate scenario to help explain our position).<\/p>\n
We also cannot ignore what the arrival of Deep Seek in the AI market means.<\/p>\n
We have just introduced two major changes to our valuation adjustments. \u00a0Firstly Tariffs. The adjustment reflects the current uncertainty but also the overall likely retrenchment away from free markets globally which will have all sorts of consequences. Immediate concerns are spikes in inflation, longer periods until interest rates can fall and shrinkage in economic activity hitting\u00a0value.<\/p>\n
Secondly AI.\u00a0This is more curious. \u00a0For some it represents an opportunity and demands an enhancement to value; for others it\u2019s a potential disaster and we need to hit the valuation with a significant impairment. \u00a0For the few,\u00a0AI will represent both an opportunity and a threat! \u00a0Those scenarios will test the team as they gather evidence to prove the argument.<\/p>\n
We are also watching market multiples and volatility closely. Market prices should (and we know markets are not perfectly efficient) reflect the net present value of the future, so using the right multiples should capture both the risk of a market correction and then the inevitable subsequent recovery. But we stay on our toes. \u00a0Fortunately we always value on a specific day; it would be unwise at this stage to try to adjust further for a market correction when no-one can yet be certain when it will occur.<\/p>\n
Sending us a tricky valuation is catnip to the team. We are currently working on valuing a debt for equity swap where the major creditor also happens to be one of the company\u2019s directors. \u00a0There are increasing levels of work around tax planning prior to a taxable event as more and more shareholders and company owners look to legitimately plan their affairs.<\/p>\n
We always do our utmost to look around the corners so we can do a full 360\u00b0 valuation. \u00a0As needed, we even prepare documents where we get another expert who has not worked on\u00a0a\u00a0report\u00a0aggressively\u00a0to attack\u00a0it and then\u00a0articulate what has been found so that both we and\u00a0our\u00a0clients are prepared for third parties that may\u00a0try the same.<\/p>\n
If there is something on,\u00a0or about to land on,\u00a0your desk, where we could help,\u00a0do\u00a0let one of us know. \u00a0We live and breathe valuations not just of shares and companies but also other assets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
What impact do tariffs have on private company valuations?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":524,"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521\/revisions\/524"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.athla.co.uk\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}